ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment - Cyber and Military Implications of the Ukrainian Counter-offensive

ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment - Cyber and Military Implications of the Ukrainian Counter-offensive

Product Serial: A-2023-06-21a

TLP:CLEAR

In this assessment of the current Ukrainian counter-offensive, ZeroFox Intelligence summarizes the current campaign, as well as projects out what various scenarios may mean for the conflict.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Executive Summary

Ukraine began its much-discussed counter-offensive in early June. The offensive will undergo several phases that will culminate with a decisive mass commitment of troops to attempt to regain significant territory. In its current initial phase, Ukraine is increasingly striking Russian targets far behind the frontlines to identify weaknesses and confuse the Russian military. Currently, Ukrainian troops are striking in three directions: in Zaporizhia, in Donetsk, and around Bakhmut.

Ukraine will eventually progress to the mass movement of some 60,000 troops in an attempt to retake territory from Russia. Ukraine has about four promising paths for its advance; Ukraine will not preemptively disclose which option it has chosen and will likely feign several directions. There is much speculation as to how successful Ukraine’s offensive will be. As a result of Western support, Ukraine is better armed than it ever has been; however, Russia has deployed a complex system of defenses along the front lines. Meanwhile, Russia will likely respond to the offensive with heightened rhetoric and economic antagonism while its military tries to defend its current positions.

The success or failure of Ukraine’s counter-offensive will prove critical to the future of the conflict. Ukraine has to recapture territory to prove Russia can be defeated and show the West a return on investment for its military and financial support. In contrast, Russia will likely seek a short- to medium-term stalemate. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely has assessed a stalemate would favor Russia, as he enjoys a significant amount of domestic societal control that would allow him to wear down Ukrainian forces for years. Putin is likely betting the West will lose interest in supporting Ukraine over time.