ZeroFox Intelligence Event Assessment - NATO Summit 2023

ZeroFox Intelligence Event Assessment - NATO Summit 2023

Product Serial: A-2023-07-03a

TLP:CLEAR

In this assessment, ZeroFox Intelligence researchers provide an analysis of the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11-12, 2023. Given the event’s location near Russia and Sweden’s application for membership, the event is garnering significant attention over strained diplomatic relations and the possibility of disruptive activity.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

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Key Findings

• Protests and other forms of disruptive activity by Russian-affiliated actors and groups are likely.
• A further deterioration of diplomatic relations between NATO members and the Russian government is expected due to the summit’s location and agenda.
• Accommodations are limited and expensive. The transportation system and hospitality sector in Vilnius will be strained for the duration of the NATO meeting.
• There is a moderate risk of cyberattack or hacking operations by threat actors linked to Russian intelligence agencies.
• Politically-motivated hacktivism is also expected in the lead up to and during the NATO meeting.
• The threat of terrorism to the summit is currently considered low. Nevertheless, the risk can never be completely ruled out given the visibility and significance of this international event.