ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for August 2023

Product Serial: B-2023-07-28a

TLP:CLEAR

In this ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for August 2023, ZeroFox researchers cover the myriad security challenges in Africa, and how they pose a threat to global security are discussed in detail. Developments in Russia's economic and military targeting of Ukraine are covered, as are important upcoming elections in Europe and Latin America. In Asia, the potential for instability in Thailand is the primary issue, while the Middle East section focuses on judicial reform in Israel, which risks physical security and international investment.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Key Findings

Violent protests in the Middle East related to repeat Quran burnings in Sweden and Denmark are possible in August 2023, while threats of violence in Europe are escalating in response.
Coup and military leaders are now in power from Africa’s westernmost edge of Guinea to its eastern Edge of Sudan crossing the entire Sahel.
Guatemala’s incumbent government will likely interfere in the upcoming election to prevent a reformist government taking over.
Protests are likely to escalate in Israel after key judicial reforms were passed.
Instability from the Sahel region of Africa is likely to spread further into key economies backed by the United States and France.
Argentina holds important primary elections that historically determine the next president.
Ecuador is seeing another wave of drug-related violence ahead of August elections.
The BRICS summit in South Africa could feature key economic agreements aimed at weakening U.S. dominance of global trade.
Protests are likely in Thailand in August as the military blocks new governments forming.
Unrest is possible in Zimbabwe if the government intervenes in elections.
Ukraine is targeting Russian logistics in Crimea, while Russia targets Ukrainian trade infrastructure to damage the Ukrainian economy.