ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Political Instability in West Africa

Product Serial: F-2023-08-31a

TLP:CLEAR

In this flash report, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers provide updates on the recent political instability occurring throughout West Africa, including an overview of what led to these developments and potential outcomes.

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Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Executive Summary

Niger’s coup at the end of July 2023 and Gabon’s in late August have destabilized the wider West and Central African region in a way that previous developments had not. Coups in Mali and Burkina Faso came after worsening jihadist violence, and the military coup leaders were able to effectively argue the ruling politicians were incapable of handling them. That was not the case in Niger, where massive Western investments aimed at combating violent extremism and slowing European-bound migration had made the country more secure. Nor was it the case in Gabon, which has fewer security threats and a more stable economy. Concerns that insecurity will spread and the humanitarian crisis will worsen are well-founded, as are fears that the larger West African states could see spillover from the political and security upheaval.