ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for October 2023

ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for October 2023

Product Serial: B-2023-09-29a

TLP:CLEAR

In this ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for October 2023, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers focus on the contagion from Russia's war in Ukraine, rather than the war itself. Security challenges in Central Asia and the Balkans, as well as reduced support for Ukraine from eastern Europe, are key consequences of the war. Similar developments along a depleted Russian periphery are likely to emerge the longer the war goes on. Latin America also has a slew of upcoming elections worth monitoring. In Asia, China's upcoming Golden Week holiday is important for getting a pulse on their struggling economy, while Canada's eventful, yet largely consequenceless, dispute with India is covered.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Key Findings

• China is expecting a surge in domestic and international travel to coincide with the Golden Week holiday.
• New Zealand will likely see a change of government, as the once-powerful Labour party is expected to lose the October elections.
• Ecuador’s presidential election is unlikely to solve its crime and economic problems, with new elections coming shortly afterwards.
• The UK will experience another series of railway workers strikes in early October.
• Far-right parties in Poland and Slovakia look set to gain ground during October elections. However both elections could lead to lengthy coalition talks to form a government.
• Armenia could seek closer ties with the United States after Russia failed to again offer protection in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the presence of other growing U.S. adversaries in the region means the ties will be limited.
• Neighboring Venezuela and Colombia both hold local elections in October.
• The prospect of a foreign intervention in Niger has diminished, with coup leaders likely to further consolidate power in the coming months.
• Domestic politicians in Poland, Slovakia, and other European countries have expressed the desire to limit aid to Ukraine.
• India’s extensive trade ties with Western nations are unlikely to be impacted by its geopolitical dispute with Canada over the killing of a dual national in Canada.
• The EU increased efforts to protect its leading industries by launching a far-reaching subsidies investigation against Chinese vehicle makers.
• VIolence could continue between Israelis and Palestinians in early October during key religious holidays.
• Kenya looks likely to lead a foreign intervention to fight gang power in Haiti before the end of 2023.
• Sudanese rulers are reportedly considering moving the seat of power which could divide the country in two again.