ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment - 2023 Polish Elections

Product Serial: A-2023-10-13a

TLP:CLEAR

In this ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment, ZeroFox researchers delve into the upcoming elections in Poland, which are slated to occur on October 15, 2023. The assessment covers several aspects of the elections, including challenges to these elections, what is impacting the elections, and potential foreign influence.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Key Findings

As Poland’s economy grows and contributions it receives from the EU diminish, support for the union will likely decrease.
Polish support for Ukraine is weakening.
A referendum on migration is taking place during the parliamentary elections to rally support for the ruling party.
At the same time, the PiS leaders’ strong anti-migrant stances have been undermined by a recent visa scandal.
Erosion of democratic institutions and independent organizations by the governing party has alarmed Western allies.
Sanctions by the European Commission and Court of Justice targeting Poland for democratic backsliding could threaten the country’s long-running economic success.
An unprecedented third term for the ruling party runs the risk of jeopardizing the country’s continued membership in the EU.