ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment - Russia-Ukraine Conflict Update

Product Serial: A-2023-10-23a

TLP:CLEAR

In this ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment, ZeroFox researchers provide updates on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, including the current state of the counteroffensive, risks to businesses operating in Russia and Ukraine, and a forward look towards the winter, Western aid, and the risk of a frozen conflict.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Key Findings

Ukraine has achieved mixed successes across its three axes of advance. However, Ukrainian forces are unlikely to reach the Sea of Azov in the short term.
Businesses operating in both Ukraine and Russia face physical security threats, supply chain risks, cybersecurity threats, and geopolitical challenges.
Historical data and trends indicate the war risks developing into a frozen conflict. Russia likely favors freezing the current frontlines while it rebuilds it forces and military industrial complex.
Western support for Ukraine shows signs of dwindling. Politicians in the United States, Slovakia, and Poland have resisted future funding, while the United Kingdom announced it no longer has enough weapons to continue supplying Ukraine. Additionally, the Israel-Hamas conflict will likely draw Western focus away from Ukraine.