The Geopolitical-Cyber Convergence: 2025 Predictions from ZeroFox Experts

2025 Predictions for Geopolitical-Cyber Convergence

The increasingly complex geopolitical environment is shaping the cyber threat landscape in 2025, causing a geopolitical-cyber convergence. We'll see continuing trends from 2024 where geopolitical events directly influenced cyber actors’ motives and actions. Nation-states, financially driven groups, hacktivists, and politically aligned collectives are adapting and reacting to global conflicts. This dynamic landscape fuels politically-motivated cyber threat actors, who leverage malicious activity such as social engineering, DDoS attacks, data breaches, and spyware deployment, to further the agendas of their aligned geopolitical factions.

Nation-states are motivated and sophisticated adversaries. But 50% of their targets are government entities, think tanks, non-government organizations (NGOs), information technology (IT), and education sectors. These organizations should take particular interest in the trends involving nation-state actors. And those outside these sectors should still take note as systems and IT infrastructures and supply chains could be affected.

Find a recap of the geopolitical-cyber convergence below, or read the full 2025 Key Forecasts Report for all of our predictions and recommendations for the year ahead.

European Union Investment in Tech Could Spark Retaliatory Actions

In September 2024, the EU announced plans to invest up to USD 1 trillion annually in innovative technologies to regain economic and technological competitiveness. While these investments aim to combat economic stagnation and advance clean energy, they also present perceived high-value targets that state cyber capabilities deem lucrative to attack. State-backed groups from Russia and China are likely to target the infrastructure and proprietary information tied to these initiatives. At the same time, the UK government will continue their initiative to strengthen resilience to prepare for, respond to, and recover from cyber attacks.

What to look out for in 2025

• An escalation in cyber threats targeting EU innovation infrastructure.
• Key sectors like clean energy and defense could become high-value targets.

China Sees Escalated Tensions as Western Nations Aim to Reduce Economic Reliance

With confirmed Chinese state-sponsored cyber attacks of Western political entities in 2024, it’s no surprise that geopolitical tensions between China, the US, and the EU are expected to escalate. Especially as Western nations aim to reduce economic reliance on China while China seeks dominance in emerging technologies to bolster its export-driven economy. Recent US actions as well as the emerging clean energy industries in the US and UK could spark Chinese retaliation or cyber activity as part of the broader tech struggle.

What to look out for in 2025

• Tactics like trade retaliation, restrictions on foreign businesses, and cyber espionage.
• Industries involved in advanced technology production could face increased cyber threats from Chinese state-linked actors.

Russia to Continue Cyber Tactics to Weaken Ukraine and Western Support

If no settlement is reached in early 2025, Russia is expected to ramp up hybrid tactics to sow doubt about Western support for Ukraine, much like in 2024. These tactics almost certainly include spreading disinformation, using energy resources as leverage, and cyberattacks to weaken Western resolve. Russia is also expected to stir up divisions in Western countries by framing military and financial aid to Ukraine as hot-button political issues.

What to look out for in 2025

• An uptick in state sponsored cyberattacks and sabotage aimed at influencing public opinion.
• Attacks on Ukrainian critical national infrastructure, including energy targets, to disrupt defense efforts.
• A rise in attacks on grain shipments, further escalating the economic and humanitarian pressure on Ukraine and its allies.

Israel and Iran Likely to Use Both Cyber and Direct Military Strategies

In 2025, Iran is expected to focus on deterring Israel from expanding the conflict in the Middle East, using asymmetric tactics like cyber warfare, proxies, and potentially deniable terror or sabotage attacks. Meanwhile, Israel is likely to intensify its military actions against Hezbollah and possibly Iran, with a chance of expanding operations in Lebanon and striking Iranian targets directly. Both nations seem positioned for a prolonged conflict involving asymmetric and direct military strategies.

What to look out for in 2025

• Iran is very likely to escalate cyberattacks, terror activities, or sabotage to maintain deniability.
• Increased risks of assassination or kidnapping attempts on Israelis abroad.
• There is a roughly even chance that Israel will expand its operations in Lebanon in early 2025.

ZeroFox Recommendations

• Subscribe to ZeroFox Intelligence monitoring and alerting to maintain awareness and keep apprised of the geopolitical-cyber convergence. You'll be alerted to geopolitical developments that may impact operations and influence the broader cyber threat landscape.
• Safeguard classified, sensitive, or business-critical assets using secure, off-site backup methods, compartmentalization, and authentication mechanisms.
• Verify geopolitical information through official channels before accepting it as truth. A multitude of tools and resources exist to assist in verifying the legitimacy of content including: Factcheck.org, AP Fact Check, BBC Verify, AFP Fact Check, and Reuters Fact Check.

Tags: Threat Intelligence